There's been a lot of buzz about the possible expansion of the best tournament in the world. And with that, there's speculations and proposals on how the NCAA and big money networks will incorporate more teams into the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
Doubling the bracket from 64 slots to 128 is absurd (or is it 65 teams to 130?), but the other alternatives aren't much better, including an increase to 96 teams.
In this proposal, 32 teams get a bye while the remaining 64 teams play in an opening round that is cut in half before joining the Main Bracket. I know the the "Nifty 96" has a nice ring to it, but seriously, 96 teams?
My proposal incorporates the two best parts of March Madness, the bubble and the brackets. The working title right now is the "Other Sweet 16" and makes all the current bubble teams play their way into the main field. (I don't think the "Sour 16" will go over too well when it comes to marketing the expansion).
Everybody Loves the 5 - 12 Game
When you're filling out your bracket, how many times have you picked the 12th seed to knock off a #5 seed? One reason we love the match-up is because, over the last 6 seasons, the record is only a few games away from being a 50/50 split (See Table 1), with Arizona, Wisconsin and Western Kentucky pulling it off last year.
Historically the 12 seeds are legitimate competition because they're either the last at-large teams in the field or strong mid major conference winners. On the flip side, the 5 seeds aren't upper echelon teams, meaning the 5-12 gap isn't as large as the numbers suggest, giving us some of the most entertaining first round games.
My proposal uses this template, but instead of having the Indianapolis, suit wearing committee hand the 12 seeds to the last teams in the tournament, I want bubble teams to fight their way into the main bracket.
Bracketology 101
Die hard hoop fans are dialed into Joe Lunardi's Bracketology all season, but this is the week when the ESPN servers work overtime. Last Four In, First Four Out and Next Four Out are the lists where bubble teams focus their attention.
Lunardi's list from the start of play on 3/12 has the following:
Last Four In - San Diego St., Illinois, Washington, Ole Miss
First Four Out - Arizona St., Memphis, Rhode Island, Seton Hall
Next Four Out* - Dayton, Mississippi St., Minnesota, UAB
*3/12 only has three teams, but UAB had been on previous Next Four Out lists.
My plan is take take these 12 teams and add 4 more to create a mini tournament.
For the sake of argument I'm including Wichita St., William & Mary, South Florida and Charlotte to fill out my field.
The Other Sweet 16
Using real life Bracketology, here's how current expansion would look.
1 San Diego St. vs 16 Charlotte
8 Seton Hall vs 9 Dayton
1/16 winner vs 8/9 winner = East 12th seed
2 Illinois vs 15 USF
7 URI vs 10 Miss. St.
2/15 winner vs 7/10 winner = South 12th seed
3 Washington. vs 14 William & Mary
6 Memphis vs. 11 Minnesota
3/14 winner vs 7/10 winner = Midwest 12th seed
4 Ole Miss vs 13 Wichita St.
5 ASU vs 12 UAB
4/13 winner vs 5/12 winner = West 12th seed
Net Impact - 12 More Teams
While the mini bracket may look convoluted, the process is relatively simple and only adds 12 teams to the field, while creating an exciting way for bubble teams to earn their keep.
Step 1
Set the Main Bracket with 60 teams (31 Automatic Qualifiers, 29 At-Large Bids), leaving the four #12 seeds vacant.
Since more teams will eventually be added to the extended field, the stupid Play-In game or, as the NCAA likes to call it, the Opening Round Game can be eliminated. If this is done, only 11 teams need to be added.
Step 2
Create four mini pods (4 teams each), playing two rounds to produce 4 teams that will become the 12 seeds.
Step 3
The remaining 64 teams play out the traditional bracket.
Housekeeping
The naysayers may doubt the simplicity of keeping the 12 seeds vacant without upsetting the natural balance and integrity of the present bracket structure.
Using current Bracketology (before 3/12 play), the 12 seeds are:
San Diego St. (Last Four In), Illinois (Last Four In), Siena (MAAC Champ) & Florida
San Diego St. & Illinois are removed from the Main Field and placed in the "Other Sweet 16," while Siena & Florida become lower seeds.
Why? Because Washington (13 seed) & Ole Miss (14 seed) are also removed from the Main Field as the other two teams currently on the Last Four In list. Their removal creates two holes that are easily filled by Siena & Florida.
The Mission
My proposal accomplishes a couple of things.
1. Limits expansion and forces bubble teams to play their way into the Main Bracket.
It maintains the integrity of the regular season and instead of comparing paper resumes, it allows bubble teams to settle things on the court.
2. Keeps Automatic Bids in the Main Bracket.
I think it's important that auto qualifiers should be rewarded for their success and not have to play any extra games (like the current Opening Round game). In a proposed expansion, with 32 teams getting byes, a slew of conference winner will be demoted into playing an extra round.
3. It mimics what we already see in the ESPN BracketBuster games.
Every year the world wide leader pits potential bubble teams and quality mid major programs against each other so they can build, or hurt their tournament chances. Instead of only cannibalizing each other in February, these tournament caliber teams get the chance to show their worth in March, in real, meaningful games.
Scheduling Conflicts
Any expansion will require the NCAA to adjust the beauty of today's current March Madness schedule, so until a proposal is finalized we'll leave those headaches for another day. But here are some general thoughts.
This proposal extends NCAA tournament action by only one weekend (two rounds). Two sites, using day/night double headers, like we currently see in the first round pod setups, can easily be created. Imagine the excitement of an extra weekend of meaningful games at Madison Square Garden.
What about the Main Bracket having to wait to start play?
Right now the NCAA and ESPN don't have a problem with having teams sit around before playing a tournament game. Just ask East Tenn St. (Atlantic Sun), Murray State (Ohio Valley) & Winthrop (Big South), which all punched their tickets as automatic qualifiers March 6th, nearly two full weeks before their first round NCAA Tournament games.
An expanded tournament, in any form, won't be any different than what these teams currently experience.
Not to mention Main Bracket games could be staggered so that you have a bevy of games spread out over this extra weekend to keep teams and fans interested while the Other Sweet 16 plays down to determine the four #12 seeds. In any expansion, the tournament will eventually sync up when 64 teams remain.
Super 76
The elimination of the Opening Round Game, the extraction of four bubble teams from the Main Bracket and the addition of 11 more teams = a tournament of 76 worthy qualifiers.
It's understandable that coaches and administrators want to see more teams make the NCAA field, especially as more and more Division 1 teams are added. Nobody wants to see the tournament become a joke or have the regular season become meaningless.
So I say, this is expansion worth talking about.
Table 1 - 12th Seed Stats
Year - 1st Round Record
’09 (3-1)
’08 (2-2)
’07 (0-4)
’06 (2-2)
’05 (1-3)
’04 (2-2)
___________
Record: 10-14
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